Hurricane prognosticators are still trying to beat psychics at the game of hurricane prediction. As I indicated in two past posts, When, Where and How Big are the Windstorms of the 2009 Hurricane Season? and Psychic Predicts No Hurricanes On Florida’s Treasure Coast, both scientists and psychics claim credit when they accurately predict a hurricane season and blame mother nature when they are wrong. Sounds a lot like the stock brokers I have known.
Accuweather.com released its revised forecast (”guess”) even before the Hurricane Season has started. This possibly could mean they are unreliable and have lost before the game has started. They now expect that there will be fewer named storms. Why should we pay attention to this forecast if they already admit they were wrong?
Nevertheless, here is the basis for their brand new forecast:
“AccuWeather predicts three tropical storms will hit the U.S. coastline, including two hurricanes, one of which could be at least category 3 strength.
Anywhere along the U.S. coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us worried," said Bastardi in a statement.
A weak El Nino pattern of warm water in the Pacific Ocean is expected to create wind shear to blow apart storms while cool water in the tropical Atlantic ocean will rob the storms of their primary energy source as dust and dry air blowing from Africa will inhibit storm development, AccuWeather said.”
I will try to contact the psychic I referenced above to see what she thinks. I imagine that her basis for a change may be no better than the meteorologists, but it may be much more interesting.
And seriously, now is the time to check that policy.